Every January or February, it’s tradition to review the vintage ES-335, ES-345, and ES-355 market. This year’s analysis arrives with a twist. The unprecedented surge in values during the Covid-19 pandemic suggested unsustainable growth. Between 2020 and 2021, some models saw values jump by as much as 40%, while even more modest increases still hovered around a significant 20%. A correction was inevitable. Optimistically, prices might have stabilized at their pandemic peaks. However, the reality is more complex, stemming from a disconnect in expectations. Sellers, including many dealers, are operating under the assumption that the Covid-era boom continues, leading to ever-increasing asking prices. Yet, actual selling prices tell a different story. The market has decelerated significantly as sellers hesitate to acknowledge the shift. While prices remain elevated, they should ideally be closer to pre-peak pandemic levels. While ambitious pricing is commonplace, a market slowdown occurs when these inflated asks become detached from buyer willingness. In recent months, adjusting prices downwards has proven to be a necessary correction to stimulate sales.
Unrealistic asking prices inevitably lead to sluggish sales. This is basic market dynamics. As a dealer, acquiring inventory at inflated prices necessitates even higher prices to maintain profitability. Consequently, purchasing activity slows unless favorable deals can be negotiated. While such deals still occur, allowing for inventory replenishment, the prevalence of overpriced guitars stagnates the market. These guitars will remain unsold until sellers adjust their expectations to reflect the leveled market. It’s even arguable that certain models have experienced a slight value decrease since the pandemic’s peak. Let’s begin this year’s market review by focusing on the ES-335 in this first installment.
2024 has solidified its position as the “Year of the ’59”. Models from 1959 have maintained their Covid-era gains and continue to appreciate, albeit at a more moderate pace. Sunburst ’59 ES-335s, at the top end of the market, have surpassed the $90,000 threshold. Pre-Covid, an excellent condition, all-original ’59 stop tail might have been valued around $45,000. This represents a doubling in value within approximately five years – a remarkable appreciation. Late ’58 bound ES-335s, despite their similarities, do not command the same prices, topping out around $80,000. Blonde ES-335s are even more difficult to value due to infrequent sales and limited market presence. A near-mint stop tail ’59 blonde recently surfaced, the first such example since 2021. Historically, blondes are often valued at double the price of sunbursts. However, this multiplier might be shifting. The 2021 blonde sale reached $137,500. My current asking price is $165,000, a notable increase but proportionally less than the surge observed in ’59 sunbursts.
The dot neck ES-335 models from 1960 to early 1962 experienced substantial price increases from 2020 to 2023, but now represent some of the most overambitiously priced guitars. A 1960 ES-335 is not a ’59. A recent ’60 in my inventory was priced in the mid-$60,000s and sold at that price point. However, current asking prices are approaching ’59 levels, with mid-$70,000s being excessively high in my estimation. While it’s true that early ’60s ES-335s are virtually identical to late ’59s, the perception differs. Collectors and many players prioritize a ’59 model specifically, denoted by a ’59 serial number and a 58/59 Factory Order Number (FON). A ’60 serial with a ’59 FON will command a premium over a ’60 FON, but fundamentally, it remains perceived as a ’60. This perception, while perhaps subjective, shapes market reality. 1961 ES-335s and early dot neck ’62s present a similar, yet more pronounced situation. These models are often considered the “sleeper” dot necks, largely due to the less popular “blade” neck profile. This neck is prone to issues and less comfortable for many players. However, this also makes them the most affordable dot neck option, maintaining some market activity. Yet, asking prices ranging from $50,000 to well over $60,000 are currently unrealistic. In November 2024, a near-mint ’61 ES-335 with original tags was acquired in trade and initially listed at a reasonable $42,000. It remained unsold for a period before eventually selling for $39,000, considered a fair price, not a bargain. A guitar’s value is ultimately determined by what buyers are willing to pay, and currently, the market is not supporting $50,000 or $60,000+ for a 1961-62 ES-335. This market reality is evident in unsold inventory.
This brings us to the block neck ES-335 market from 1962 to 1964. Consistent with previous years, red finish models sell more rapidly than sunbursts. The appeal of red finishes is undeniable, perhaps amplified by the “Clapton connection,” even as the baby boomer generation ages within the market. Neck profile continues to be a key market driver. 1962 and early ’63 ES-335s with slimmer necks sell slower than late ’63, ’64, and early ’65 models featuring larger necks. If a ’62 or ’63 ES-335 is equipped with PAF pickups, it will sell more quickly regardless of the finish. While ’64s rarely have PAFs, they are highly sought after. The late ’63/’64 neck profile (and early ’65) is relatively slim at the first fret (often around .81″), but possesses more shoulder, creating a fuller feel. This ’63-’64 neck is often lauded as the pinnacle of Gibson neck design. While personal preference leans towards the ’58-’59 necks, the appeal of the ’63-’64 profile is understandable. Prices for clean, red, stop tail ’64 ES-335s without issues have surpassed $40,000. Sunburst ’64s are theoretically valued similarly, but are considerably harder to sell, potentially necessitating price reductions for a quicker sale. Bigsby-equipped ’64s, often identifiable by the “Custom Made” plaque covering the stop tailpiece holes, tend to fall in the mid to upper $20,000s, representing a relative value proposition. However, Maestro vibrato-equipped ES-335s require caution. The shallow break angle over the bridge can lead to playability issues. While some Maestro systems function well, others do not. A ’63 “Mickey Mouse ear” ES-335 with PAFs and the larger neck profile is a highly desirable and rare combination. Only one such example has been in inventory. Similar to the dot neck market, the block neck market has also become somewhat inflated. If a ’62-’64 ES-335 is not selling quickly, it is likely priced too high. This principle applies broadly across popular vintage models. Buyers are present, but at the right price point.
Red Bigsby “Custom Made” 1964 ES-335s remain highly popular and have maintained their value since the Covid surge. While stop tail versions have become very expensive, the Bigsby version remains a relatively good deal. Exercise caution with Maestro-equipped 335s, as the shallow break angle can cause playability problems. Some Maestro vibratos are excellent, while others are not.
